The recent Nanos poll will be encouraging to many.
The latest round of Nanos tracking suggests that although the Conservatives and Liberals are now gripped in a deadlock, the change has been driven more by self-inflicted damage by the Conservatives than the efforts of the Liberals.
It will be encouraging to Liberals as it suggests support for the CPC is eroding. It will be encouraging to the Conservatives as it indicates that the CPC is in control of the trend.
Of note, the Nanos Leadership Index, which tracks the perceptions of the federal party leaders on trust, vision and competence shows a continued and substantive advantage for Stephen Harper. He continues to lead his counterparts in trust, vision and competence. The Leadership Index tracking for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff remains unmoved, even in the wake of what has been recognized as a successful summer tour.
This will encourage the CPC as it show the leadership advantage Harper has had, remains. It will encourage the NDP as Layton scores higher than Ignatieff on the leadership questions.
The combination of data indicates that the impact of the Liberal leader’s summer tour has not helped materially boost the personal numbers for Michael Ignatieff at this point, and more fundamentally, that the accumulation effect of controversies may be taking effect on the government.
This “accumulation of controversies effect” might be a sort of encouragement to the Liberals.
Given all that what does it mean? Not very much. We guess Nanos’s conclusion that an election would be risky for both the government and the opposition is as good a conclusion as any.
To see all the numbers see the pdf file on the Nanos site – Federal Conservative Advantage Evaporates