Batten down the hatches

UPDATE: From AccuWeather;

I see Environment Canada is going with tropical storm warnings for all of the south coast of Nova Scotia. Even with the ideas that I wrote above, I would still have hurricane warnings for the south facing coast of Nova Scotia.

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We expect everyone is watching the weather and will be for the next day or so to see where Earl is headed. As an alternative to Environment Canada we’ve been watching AccuWeather’s storm tracking.

As of late Thursday afternoon it appears that the center of Hurricane Earl has already reached its farthest point west and is now moving due north, if not a touch east of due north. A gradual turn toward the north-northeast then northeast around the Bermuda high will take place later Thursday night and into Friday.

As Earl moves north of the Cape Hatteras area later Thursday night it will begin to encounter some wind shear and also cooler waters, so a steady, but slow weakening trend will occur through Friday.

This sounds like good news but there still could be some damage. Brett continues:

Based on what I am seeing now, I am more confident that Earl will be a solid category one hurricane at landfall along southern Nova Scotia either Saturday morning or early afternoon. Part of my reasoning for not holding on to a category two idea is the fact that there will be wind shear and the hurricane will not be moving fast enough. Yes, it will be accelerating its forward speed through Friday and into early Saturday, but not quite fast enough to limit the amount of weakening over the cooler waters compared to some more notable hurricanes in the past which tracked northward at over 65 km/h. Also, computer models are not as low with the central pressure as they were yesterday.

Still, even with a category one, I think there could easily be some wind gusts over 160 km/h along the immediate south coast of Nova Scotia from Cape Sable to near Halifax, assuming a center landfall between Yarmouth and Cape Sable early Saturday. There will also be a pocket of potential gusts to or above 160 km/h along the western slopes of the Cape Breton Highlands on Saturday as the southeast wind greatly accelerates down off those higher elevations and into the coastal areas below.

Typically as these hurricanes move over the cooler water and weaken, the strongest winds which are normally concentrated just outside the center in a hurricane begin to spread outward from the center. Now, when this happens the winds are not quite as strong as before, but we tend to see more widespread strong, potentially damaging winds over a greater area.

There maybe a few roofs to replace. [Will they be white?] Read the rest for Brett’s main points and his models of various possible tracks. It looks like it will track over  SW Nova Scotia including the Fundy shore.

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