Latest numbers

The newest Nik Nanos Poll has the Liberals and the Conservatives in a dead heat. [BTW – why do they always say the Harper Conservatives and never say the Ignatieff Liberals?]

The Conservatives continue to lead in the Prairies and British Columbia but are statistically tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, Ontario. The Bloc Quebecois leads in Quebec at 33% followed by the Liberals at 29% and the Conservatives at 22%, the NDP at 11% and the Greens at 5%.

What Nik calls a dead heat is actually a slight lead, in spite of the Prorogation issue.

National Committed Voters Only (n=783)
Conservative 35.6% (-3.9)
Liberal 33.9% (+3.7)
NDP 16.4% (-2.3)
BQ 8.5% (+0.8)
Green 5.6% (+1.6)

But the most interesting figure to us is this one:

Note: Undecided 21.9% (-3.8) of total voters surveyed

Therein lies the story.

It seems that the prorogation issue hasn’t led to much of a dip in Conservative support here in Atlantic Canada (although the sample size is small). What’s interesting there is that the NDP has lost ground to the Liberals since Dec.

Here’s what Nik’s numbers look like over time, from 2002 to the present:

For some comment on these numbers see the chat at Nik on the Numbers

Here’s one of them, a comment on Canadians’ level of political ignorance.

Where do the people who answer Obama or Democrats go? If someone answers Obama does the interviewer offer Liberal or NDP as a clarifier? If the respondent answers Sarah Pallin or Bush does the talk go to CPC? or all these counted as undecided…. or thrown away from the sample?


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