Are we finally seeing some sense in the world of Climate Change? As we enjoy our longest stretch of nice weather this summer we are encouraged by this statement.
“…we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”
The quotation above is from a presenter, Mojib Latif from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany, who spoke at a gathering of more than 1500 of the world’s top climate scientists at the UN’s World Climate Conference in Geneva.
At least some of the Climatologists there are admitting they know less than they thought they did. And some are concluding – in an unsettled way – that
natural variability is at least as important as the long-term climate changes from global warming.
... that in the next few years a natural cooling trend would dominate over warming caused by humans. The cooling would be down to cyclical changes to ocean currents and temperatures in the North Atlantic, a feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. “But how much? The jury is still out,” he told the conference. The NAO is now moving into a colder phase. [emph ours]
And it wasn’t just Latif.
James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic. “The oceans are key to decadal natural variability,” he said.
And they know where the problem has been. In their models. And they are admitting it. Finally. Some of them anyway.
“Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts,” said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK.
UK climate people have been getting a ton of flak because they have been predicting warm Barbeque summers for the past few years based on global warming models, predictions which have come a nasty cropper to say the least.
And there is the Sea Ice question we keep hearing about.
Another favourite climate nostrum was upturned when Pope warned that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural cycles rather than global warming. Preliminary reports suggest there has been much less melting this year than in 2007 or 2008. [SOURCE]
Some are saying the Global Warmists have to come up with some excuses to “explain” the recent ( and probably future) cooling that satellite measurement is proving, but we are quite willing to let these climate experts “save face” if they will just please spare us all the dire predictions so we can stave off silly, expensive and unnecessary “green” programs because of the supposed urgency to “Save the Earth”.
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