Long range weather forecast for Christmas -updated

Updated Nov. 2008: This is still one of our most popular posts! Naturally people looking for long range weather forecasts will come across it even though this is for last Christmas! Brett hasn’t come out with one for Christmas yet but when he does we will post it here. In the meantime take a look at his latest forecast

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This has been our most popular post for a while. People are obviously very interested in what the weather will be over Christmas and into the New Year.The forecasts have been updated through March. Here is the latest from Brett at Accuweather.

For January 2008:

Temperatures across Atlantic Canada would be slightly above normal with less storms.

Think he means fewer storms or less stormy weather 🙂

His call for the near term –

I will make a call on the potential snow event for southern Nova Scotia tomorrow morning, after I look at one more run of the model suite. The clipper that will bring a general 2-8 cm of snow across Ontario and into southern Quebec Wednesday will strengthen east of Massachusetts Thursday, and the northern edge of the steady snow from that storm may clip southern Nova Scotia Thursday and Thursday night as the storm moves farther to the east-northeast out to sea. Out West, we got three major storms coming into British Columbia. The first one come Wednesday, the second one is Saturday and the third, which may be the strongest now comes in Sunday evening. Each one of these storms will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the BC coastal region, while heavy snow will fall in the BC mountains. As usual, each storm will rapidly weaken and lose a lot of its moisture as it moves east of the Rockies into the prairies thanks to the downsloping winds.

More here

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Brett has come out with his long range forecast for the week before, over and after Christmas. [added: scroll down or look at the left in his list of recent posts] We find accuweather more understandable than environment Canada’s long range tables and more specific than their summary. We have copied just some ofBrett’s forecast pertinent to our area but check out the rest for other areas.

The week of Dec 17-23

The newly updated European weekly computer model forecast for North America shows a large trough (pocket of cold air aloft) over extreme western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, while a ridge (pocket of warmer and dry air aloft) was located over the southern U.S. Plains, which is fairly consistent with earlier runs. Main storm track from the central U.S. Rockies to the Great Lakes and across New England. …

–Wet pattern for Atlantic Canada with rain favored near the coast and snow well inland. …

The week of Dec 24th-Dec 30th

The model does not show too much change from the previous week across western Canada, but it does show a building ridge of high pressure expanding from the southern U.S. into Atlantic Canada. Main storm track looks to be from the central Rockies of the U.S. to the Upper Great Lakes then weakening through Quebec. …

-Milder and drier pattern from Nova Scotia to southeastern Newfoundland. …

Week of Dec 31- Jan 06

Coldest air appears to retreat up toward the Yukon Territory and Alaska, while a persistent eastern ridge of high pressure aloft leads to above-normal temperatures from Ontario through Atlantic Canada. Main storm track from the northern and central U.S. Rockies through the upper Great Lakes and then weakening into Quebec as the storms encounter that building ridge of high pressure farther to the east.

—Drier and milder than normal from the Northeast U.S. through Atlantic Canada.



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3 responses to “Long range weather forecast for Christmas -updated

  1. Hi i live in the Canary Islands,to be exact Tenerife,the southeast corner,im English have lived here 21years.And i have noticed a big change in the climate here from 1987 to 2001you could say after the summer ,you would get rain in October then in November,then you would get settled weather untill February and it would pour down.Now it rains out of season and it does not rain over the isleland as a whole its just local,and then it can be torrentiol, and the climate has become very humid.Can you comment on this change im very interested.

  2. Can’t say what might be happening in your part of the world. A lot of weather effects are local or regional. For example the UK has had extremely cool and wet weather in the past few years including flooding that they haven”t seen in 50 years. Will try to enquire for you though, of some climate guys we know., in case they have some ideas. Did notice this course at the Universidad de Verano de Adeje :

    http://www.tenerifenews.com/cms/front_content.php?idart=8490

  3. Pingback: Long Range Dec Jan forecast 09 « Wolfville watch