We’ve often said to folk we know including deluded family members that we’d be willing to bet a considerable sum (we said $100 bucks at the time!) on a climate outcome NOT predicted by the present modelers so much in vogue. This would not be enough to interest Al Gore but perhaps $20,000 on the line would? Scott Armstrong, is giving just such a challenge.
Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School challenges Al Gore $20,000
that he will be able to make more accurate forecasts of annual mean
temperatures than those that can be produced by climate models. Scott
Armstrong’s forecasts will be based on the naive (no-change) model;
that is, the forecasts would be the same as the most recent year prior
to the forecasts.
December 1, 2007. The money will be placed in a Charitable Trust to be
established at a brokerage house. The charity designated by the winner
will receive the total value in the fund when the official award is
made at the annual International Symposium on Forecasting in 2018.
The full terms of the “bet” are here.
Will Al Gore pick up the gauntlet? We predict he won’t. But forecasting is always risky.
Meanwhile - elsewhere.
fields of the Mont Blanc range indicate small thickness changes and
show that these very high-elevation glaciated areas have not been
significantly affected by climate change over the last 100 years.’
Filed under: Environment, Main Page
